HAX Research Laboratory

Foresight Canvas

A speculative design process to anticipate the long-term, unintended consequences of our agent. This audit focuses on identifying second-order effects, potential for misuse, and systemic risks.

HAX Research Laboratory

Foresight Canvas

A speculative design process to anticipate the long-term, unintended consequences of our agent. This audit focuses on identifying second-order effects, potential for misuse, and systemic risks.

Foresight Canvas

To apply the ‘Foresight & Feedback Loops’ principle by stress-testing the agent against the future. The goal is to move beyond the immediate user and anticipate consequences and unintended impacts, potential for misuse, and systemic changes that could emerge when this agent is used at scale.

Instructions

Before the brainstorming session, think about the formulation of the problem statement. There can be many problems but each problem must have a link to a first and second order consequence.
Working from the center (problem), take 5 min on each layer (populating the sticky notes) and 5 minutes for discussion, the exception to this is tech solution. For this take 10 min for each as it is important that each participant have a grounded understanding of the proposal.
Once fully populated, discuss and dissect as a team deciding on which consequences are most likely to occur.

Methodology

Futures Wheel is a foresight method that provides a model of the future based on the consequences of an event or trend. It is a subjective and qualitative method, relying on the experience and knowledge of the participants. Its low complexity allows its usage without requiring specialized training to be carried on. Nonetheless, it requires a deep understanding of the problem domain being analyzed, so that the generated future model may as accurate as possible.

Please note: Maps and canvases are living documents and may change as per user insight and research.

Instructions

Once you have reviewed your Future Wheel and found clusters of themes, map your speculations on a time scale.
Look at the challenges to solve and work together to find a solution that addresses your selected probable consequences.

Methodology

The Futures Cone (also called the “Cone of Possibility” is the complementary framework to the Futures Wheel. Where the wheel maps ripple effects, the cone organizes types of futures across time and probability - from what is likely, to what is possible, to what we want.

Goal: Move from imagination → mapping → strategic response.

Please note: maps and canvases are living documents and may change as per user insight and research.